Victories by Rick Santorum in Tennessee and Oklahoma and Newt Gingrich in Georgia forestalled a Mitt Romney coronation on Super Tuesday, but it increasingly appears that the other three Republican contenders are only delaying the inevitable. The press, whether out of desire for a drawn-out horse race or out of reluctance not to step on the toes of candidates still proclaiming to be in it to win it, insists that, as Jeff Zeleny writes in the Times, “Mitt Romney won the delegates, but not necessarily the argument.”
It doesn’t take a very strong B.S. detector to realize that a good argument will hardly win the nomination. The situation now mirrors the tail end of the Clinton-Obama drama of 2008, when Clinton steadfastly refused to leave the race, despite having no mathematically possible path forward. To venture into the dangerous (for me) territory of sports metaphors, you win by winning. You win by scoring more points. Not by attracting the most dedicated, bodypaint-covered fans; not by provoking the loudest applause; not by looking like the most talented team on the court. The political corollary: You don’t win by stirring up the most indignant rage (Santorum), spouting the wildest ideas (Gingrich), or storming the caucuses with the most die-hard college students (Paul). It’s even worth noting that you don’t win by having the biggest bank account (Romney) or the most flawless resume in corporate America (Romney again). And you certainly don’t win by muffing state eligibility requirements, as Santorum did in Ohio; losing 18 delegates this way is the equivalent of tripping over your shoelaces or scoring a basket for the opposing team. (Don’t sports folks call this kind of thing an unforced error?)
You win by amassing 1,144 delegates. By that metric, Romney is not only the front-runner but the undeclared victor. He currently has 415 delegates; Santorum has 176, Gingrich 105, and Paul 47. Two hundred thirty-nine delegates is not a gap — it’s a gulf, and one that is nearly unbridgeable. There are simply not enough states in which any of other three candidates — whose stubborn refusal to drop out will ensure a divided non-Romney vote — are strong enough to get to 239. As Karen Tumulty writes in the Washington Post:
Though Mitt Romney’s opponents continue to insist there is a road to the Republican presidential nomination for them after the Super Tuesday contests, the arithmetic suggests otherwise.
How long it will take for the other contenders and their supporters to figure that out — and to make peace with it — is another question.
I suspect Ron Paul, who openly admits that his “chances are slim,” has figured it out. Gingrich and Santorum, on the other hand, are both delusional enough to keep hoping for divine intervention (literally, for Santorum) or a popular revolt in which the masses wrench the nomination away from the establishment elites holed up at the Fox News headquarters. Politico’s Maggie Haberman archly points to the possibility that “Santorum could miraculously win every winner-take-all state through Texas.” As for the candidates’ supporters: Sheldon Adelson, the casino mogul who funneled over $10 million to a pro-Gingrich super PAC but who has quietly offered his support to Romney should he win the nomination, is no dummy. Beyond a few quirky billionaires (namely Foster Friess, the Santorum backer who endorsed Bayer aspirin as a birth control method), the lion’s share of Republican fundraisers have already fallen into line behind Romney.
The zombie of the Republican race will undoubtedly stagger into spring, seemingly alive despite a mathematical bullet to the brain. Gingrich and Santorum may score a few wins in the South; indeed, Gingrich has pinned his candidacy on Alabama and Mississippi, which vote on March 13. But after April, when the Republican National Committee gives states the official green-light to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, Romney’s narrow edge will become an undeniably insurmountable lead. Let the general election begin.
. . . So Well Read. . . 