Continuing to bulldoze the wall between opinion and reporting, today’s Wall Street Journal uses its news pages to advance its editors’ crusade against campaign finance regulation and to stir up sympathy for the poor conservatives it — incredibly — believes are getting the short end of the big-money stick. To all those good-government types concerned that super PACs would inject unprecedented buckets of cash into the 2012 election, the WSJ offers this wisdom: Don’t worry your pretty little heads. “So far, these super PACs are looking less than super,” reporter Neil King Jr. writes. “But signs are few that super PACs have had the major impact that both supporters and critics predicted.” The gloating subtext: Boy, were you liberals stupid to get so upset over nothing. Outside spending, in the Murdochian reality, isn’t a problem at all. In fact, it hardly amounts to a hill of beans, as demonstrated by the Citizens United-fueled super PAC spending binge that never materialized.
It’s not that King doesn’t have a point when he writes that “the flood of spending doesn’t appear to have significantly influenced voter opinion in key states in the presidential contest or in top congressional races.” Indeed, despite the massive independent expenditures that have allowed Republicans to counter the Obama campaign’s fundraising advantage, the president still leads in the swing states, and chances for a GOP takeover of the Senate are slipping away. Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan are three battleground states that super PAC dollars have failed to turn into easy Romney victories. And King correctly cites the Republican primary as perhaps the ultimate super PAC triumph, when outside spending kept Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum in the race past long past their sell-by dates, and when Romney’s goose was ultimately saved by Restore Our Future’s helicopter drops of cash into Florida.
But, by making a case for the futility of super PAC spending, King also sneakily makes the case for the supposedly benign influence of outside spending. If Sheldon Adelson’s millions have had “scant record of success,” then the unlimited spending ushered in by Citizens United must not be so harmful to democracy after all. (For the record, I sort of agree with that contention. But I’m not making that argument in the ostensibly neutral pages of the nation’s most widely-circulated newspaper.)
While it’s true that super PACs have not been the unstoppable financial steamrollers liberals feared, to use this fact as proof of the harmless nature of outside money misses the forest for the trees. What is missing from the WSJ article is an asterisk crucial and weighty enough to sink the Titanic. Outside money — which is predominantly conservative money, as the left’s record of super PAC and non-profit fundraising has been pathetically dismal — hasn’t flowed to super PACs because it has gone instead to 501(c)(4) groups like Crossroads GPS that, unlike American Crossroads (its super PAC counterpart) or the Romney-backing Restore Our Future, don’t have to disclose their donors.
The WSJ serves up this slick graphic to imply that the Obama campaign and its allies have an edge on Romney & Co., even when outside spending by super PACs is factored in.
It’s true that Chicago itself has more readily accessible cash than Romney, especially when one considers that much of the $180 million Republican war chest is sitting in RNC coffers and subject to restrictions that prevent it from spending on the candidate directly. The Romney campaign has only $50.4 million in cash-on-hand, considerably less than the $88 million directly available to Obama. In addition to rules that limit the amount of spending the RNC can coordinate with Boston, the National Journal observes that “money raised through joint committees, for example, is often funneled to state parties to help fund voter-contact efforts. But in that case, the cash can’t be used for TV ads with the potential to shift presidential votes on a large scale.”
The WSJ claims that the massive Republican advantage in super PAC fundraising is barely enough to offset the money pulled in by the Obama campaign and its handful of relatively weak super PACs. Indeed, Obama has been burning through his bank account for precisely this reason; without super PACs to step in, he is more heavily reliant on his own fundraising. Priorities USA, the only Democratic super PAC even attempting to play in the big leagues, raked in $10.1 million in August, outpacing Restore Our Future for the first time. But Priorities is still dwarfed by the myriad groups on the right, and a slow start to fundraising has hampered its effectiveness: In all of 2011, it took in only $4.3 million, a sharp contrast to the $30.1 million haul by Restore Out Future. And American Crossroads and its brethren continue to outpace smaller liberal groups.
But looking only at campaign and super PAC resources misses the real source of conservative cash: 501(4)c’s. These non-profits, which are not obligated to disclose their donors to the FEC, are the real London Whales of campaign finance. ProPublica offers this astounding piece of information:
Two conservative nonprofits, Crossroads GPS and Americans for Prosperity, have poured almost $60 million into TV ads to influence the presidential race so far, outgunning all super PACs put together, new spending estimates show.
By contrast, the super PACs that the Journal paints as the only big spenders in the race outside of the campaigns — and which it suggests have not emerged as the evil influence-peddlers Democrats predicted — have coughed up a total of $55.7 million. The parties themselves? A paltry $22.5 million. ProPublica again:
Crossroads GPS, or Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies, is the brainchild of GOP strategist Karl Rove, and spent an estimated $41.7 million. Americans for Prosperity, credited with helping launch the Tea Party movement, is backed in part by billionaire brothers David and Charles Koch, and spent an estimated $18.2 million.
The ProPublica story even comes with its own chart, which nicely counters the WSJ fallacy that all outside spending is super PAC spending.
This hardly comes as a surprise. Though liberals have latched onto the Stephen Colbert narrative of the conservative super PAC bogeyman, the big money has always been in “dark money” groups like Crossroads GPS that can conceal the sources of their donations. The Citizens United and SpeechNow rulings opened the door to unlimited independent expenditures by corporations, but it’s not hard to understand why relatively few businesses have taken up Justice Scalia’s offer. Image-conscious CEOs are reluctant to associate their brands with the politically radioactive agendas (environmental deregulation, homophobic “pro-marriage” legislation, tax cuts for the wealthy) and rhetoric (“Obama is a socialist!”) of outfits like Americans for Prosperity. Most millionaires aren’t as forthcoming about their intentions to spend the president out of office as Sheldon Adelson or the Koch brothers — and they certainly won’t be encouraged by that trio’s constant whining about government “retaliation” and “intimidation” for their activities. (Note to Adelson: If you want the government off your back, try not breaking laws against bribing officials in Macao.) 501(4)(c)s are immensely more appealing; no one ever has to know which causes you favor or which candidates you back.
It’s worth noting that, while conservatives are busy minimizing the impact of super PACs, the left deliberately exaggerates their effect. An alarmist headline on Slate contends that “78 Percent of Outside Spending Tied to Citizens United,” but the truth is more nuanced. The Sunlight Foundation report referenced in the article cites a scarily large number — $272 million in super PAC spending alone, plus another $93 million from trade associations and non-profits — but it turns out the bulk of that $272 million has been spent not on the presidential campaign but on individual Senate and House races. Somewhat incongruously, reporter Andrew McCarthy admits that “the most recent data suggests that outside groups are increasingly spending their cash on Senate and House races, while the amount directed at the top of the ballot has declined,” then makes two major errors. Not only does McCarthy contradict himself, writing that “most of the money amassed by the major super PACs has been put toward negative advertising in the presidential election” (emphasis mine), but he misrepresents the Sunlight Foundation’s findings. The next sentence, which claims that “in total, $131.1 million has been spent in opposition to President Obama,” implies that this money was spent by “major super PACs.” Follow the provided link, however, and it turns out that $131.1 million is the total independent expenditures, a category which includes not just super PAC dollars but money from the Republican National Committee (which was obviously bankrolling political ads long before Citizens United) and non-profits like Crossroads GPS. By conflating these disparate types of groups, McCarthy makes super PACs seem bigger and badder than they actually are. In fact, out of the top four big spenders, each of which has dropped $25 to $30 million on ads opposing the president, two — Americans for Prosperity and the RNC — aren’t super PACs at all. So half of the roughly $100 million spent by the top four groups had nothing to do with Citizens United. (Strangely, the Sunlight Foundation reports Crossroads GPS as having spent only $7 million; it’s not entirely clear why this number is so different from ProPublica’s figures, as even when non-presidential spending is factored in, Sunlight’s total of $18 million is nowhere close to ProPublica’s $41 million stat for presidential race spending alone.)
It is a cliche to say that the truth often lies somewhere between the extremes, but in this case the old saw seems to hold true. The WSJ suffers from serious confirmation bias when it plays into the conservative argument that, just because super PACs have proved to be more game-tweakers than game-changers, outside money has had little effect on the campaign. But Slate goes too far in the opposite direction by claiming that super PACs are steamrolling the poor Democrats, who have mustered only $50.7 million to attack Mitt Romney. One could even see Slate’s deception as more deliberately mendacious, as McCarthy makes patently false statements about the numbers from the Sunlight Foundation, while the WSJ only lies by omission.
To his credit, New York Magazine’s Frank Rich is one liberal who acknowledges that the WSJ has a point about the relative impotence of super PAC money. While writers at American Prospect and The Nation continue to gnash their teeth and rend their clothes over the Stephen Colbert bogeymen, Rich admits that “It may turn out that many, including me, were more worried about the post–Citizens United wave of money from the Kochs and Adelsons than we had to be,” though according to Rich this is only because Romney has been such a weak candidate. Unfortunately, by calling the WSJ piece “most important political story so far this week” because “it cites example after example of pro-Romney super-PAC expenditures failing to get the job done,” he commits the same errors as Murdoch’s Journal minions: he ignores the 501(4)(c) sources of real “dark money.” In their desire to cast super PACs in the most convenient partisan light, both the left and right miss the real ten-ton gorillas in the room: the non-profits, whose political spending turns their tax-exempt status as “social welfare” organizations into a cruel joke. Those groups, masquerading as do-gooders and non-partisan defenders of “American values” (capitalism, religion, free markets — take your pick), are more dangerous to democracy than anything spawned by Citizens United.





